OpenUru.org

Hi All,
Check out latest info on http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/cyaninc/obduction
If they reach $1.3 milion, they will be adding Oculus Rift to the game. For those that haven't pledge, they could use your help reaching their goal.

Moved topic to Open Discussion.

If you are not yet a backer of Cyan's Obduction kickstarter, please consider it! It looks fantastic and $25 gets you a digital download of the game you'd end up buying anyway - and gets the project that much closer to reality.

You can also track progress at http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/cyaninc/obduction/.

Since I don't follow KickTraq's logic in calculating trends, I did my own

I did some polynomial least squares fitting to the known data (for full days only, adding in today's partial data screws it up) and came up with some predictions for the trend over the final few days. It'll be interesting to see how accurate (or otherwise) this is...


Updated chart, based on data to day 26:

WOW! Here's hopin'...

Thanks for doing that, MacFife. Least-squares fitting all the known data looks a bit more trustworthy. I've posted links to this thread on the GoMa and Devokan forums.

It's fairly easy to do these in Excel, so I'll try to post updated charts each day.

As I noted in the KickStarter Comments, if the anticipated surge on the last two days happens as expected/hoped then the fitting won't be able to predict the effect as it'd be out-of-trend. However, the way the points of inflection in the chart are evaluated means that there's already some expection of accelerating growth towards the end anyway. The charts probably lie somewhere between the cases where there is a big boost and falling flat, with possibly a little bias towards the optimistic view.

Day 27 update:

Wow! A big push yesterday got Obduction over the $1M milestone. The Total line is now moving away from the green line which is what we need to see happen if any of the stretches are going to be met. Base funding level is within smelling distance as I type this - only $50k to go!

It's almost irrelevant to post an updated chart now, although it might give a sense on how likely the stretch goals are. However, later today the 48 hour reminders should go out which could bring in a raft of new backers although it's always possible that everyone is already in!

I've also been graphing the same thing using KickSpy's data since has a slightly different definition of "a day" but haven't posted it - it doesn't show a huge difference.

I've put all my charts together in my blog, so it's a bit easier to see how they compare as the last few days elapsed: http://www.mac-fife.me.uk/uru-blogs/19-obduction

The red prediction line has hardly moved at all and only the orange (optimistic) line has really showed any significant change, which is to be expected since it's a lot more sensitive to changes in the previous days pledge level.